"Mangkang Menua,Mangkang Dunya,Ngetan Ke Bansa!!"

October 30, 2011

Chart: The possible future of public debt- RM1 trillion

Filed under: Barisan Nasional — Pengayau @ 9:31 am
Tags: ,

Taken from Poliweet.Org

The public debt is the total amount owed by the Federal Government, both domestic and external. Since 1997 the Federal Government debt (public debt) has steadily increased. The latest figure for June 2011 places the debt at RM 437 billion.

Not only has the total debt been increasing, but the rate of growth has for the most part remained high. It crossed RM100 billion in 1998. It crossed 200 billion in 2004. It crossed 300 billion in 2008. It crossed 400 billion in 2010.

In other words, the time taken for the debt to grow has been:

100 billion to 200 billion = 6 years
200 billion to 300 billion = 4 years
300 billion to 400 billion = 2 years

That is an exponential growth rate. The average growth rate from 2005 – 2010 was 10.6%/year. If the current growth rate holds steady at 10%, the public debt will cross RM 1 trillion by 2020.

This chart shows the size of the public debt from 1995 – 2020, based on an estimated growth rate of 10% per year from June 2011 onwards. This serves as an illustration of the possible future of the public debt based on recent trends.

While the debt ceiling ensures this will not happen easily, this chart should make it clear that recent trends are not sustainable for the future. Economic reforms are needed to drive up revenue, lower expenditure or both.

Ahmed Kamal
19th October 2011

——
Data used in this graph:

Format : Year – Amount

Public Debt (RM million)

1995 – 91369
1996 – 89681
1997 – 89920
1998 – 103121
1999 – 112118
2000 – 125626
2001 – 145724
2002 – 164963
2003 – 188767
2004 – 216624
2005 – 228670
2006 – 242225
2007 – 266722
2008 – 306437
2009 – 362386
2010 – 407101
June 2011 – 437182
2012 – 480900.2
2013 – 528990.22
2014 – 581889.242
2015 – 640078.1662
2016 – 704085.9828
2017 – 774494.5811
2018 – 851944.0392
2019 – 937138.4431
2020 – 1030852.287

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